05.02.08
Analysing the Q1 North American Automotive Sales Numbers…..
Now this blog entry is not suppose to be a maths lesson!, I thought it was an opportune moment to review the performance of the North American automotive companies during Q1 and take a quick look at the external influencers that are impacting their recently released quarterly results. So let’s take a look at the vehicle manufacturers first.
The surprise of the last three months is Ford, they have somehow turned around their business to produce a $100 million profit last quarter. Considering all the problems that Ford were experiencing just last year, this is dramatic turnaround for their business and has now set them on a path of continued growth and new business expansion. However Ford are still likely to make an overall loss in 2008 and probably won’t reach true profitability until 2010 when new car models start to hit the market. This profit has not come about simply by selling off Jaguar and Land Rover, that deal won’t go through until next month so what have Ford done?, how have they seemingly achieved the impossible in what is a very tough economic climate? Put simply, Ford have been following an aggressive cost cutting exercise, developing global car platforms, rationalising key suppliers, establishing manufacturing plants in low cost regions around the world and most importantly starting to develop consumer ‘friendly’ cars once again. Ford sales were boosted by a strong performance in Europe with a pre-tax profit of $739 million, up from $219 million a year ago, the results in Europe helped to counteract the relatively poor performance in North America.
Turning to GM, they revealed a significant $3.25 billion loss in the first quarter compared to a relatively small $45 million loss during the same period last year. Slow U.S vehicle sales, high fuel prices and a continued housing slump prompted GM to revise their sales projections. In addition GM is being affected by continued financial troubles at two of their former companies GMAC Financial Services who needed $1.45 billion and Delphi who needed $731 million to help with restructuring charges. GM are continuing to provide financial support to both of these companies as part of ongoing restructuring efforts. (I will discuss Delphi a bit later). GM also revealed that they lost nearly $800 million due to UAW’s strike action at one of their key suppliers American Axle and Manufacturing Holdings Inc. GM had to cease production at some of their plants due to the strike action at American Axle. One of a few positives that came out of this quarter was that there was a sharp decline in GM’s inventories which dropped about 100,000 units because of the American Axle strike, with most of this drop being in full-sized SUVs and trucks. Even though this was a significant inventory reduction for GM, they still carry too much inventory, ending the quarter with nearly 840,000 units on its books. Part of this problem has been caused by the tough economic conditions in North America, particularly the higher fuel prices that has made the SUV and truck market a difficult one to compete in. GM will have to address their product strategy in North America to meet the growing demand from consumers for more fuel efficient cars and continued investments in hybrid and electric vehicles will play an important part in GM’s future product strategy.
Over at Chrysler, their sales dropped 23.5% for April and down 17.6% for the year to date, the company blaming the decline on the industry’s slow truck and SUV sales and its own decision to reduce sales to rental fleets which for many companies has traditionally helped to significantly boost sales figures. Some of Chrysler’s key models such as the Jeep Commander, Cherokee and Dodge Ram pickups saw sales drops of 49%, 31% and 23% respectively. To try and counteract these losses Chrysler LLC are undertaking a complete platform review, taking significant costs out of their business and looking for key partners that they can jointly develop new vehicles with.
Overall, including the other car manufacturers around the world, global car sales fell by 8.6% in the first four months of this year.
From a supplier perspective the performance of some of the industry’s key suppliers was equally uninspiring. In a similar situation to Ford, many of the Tier 1 suppliers saw a drop in North American sales but they reached profitability due to stronger sales performances in Europe. Delphi for example was due to exit Chapter 11 in early April, until a $2.5 billion restructuring package provided by Appaloosa Management LP was pulled at the last minute. This meant that Delphi have had to rewrite its financing package once again and seek support from former owner GM. As mentioned before, the situation at Delphi partly contributed to the profitability of GM for the last quarter. So it will be a while longer before Delphi exit Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and they will have to continue taking costs out of their business to help boost profitability and improve opportunities for growth. Since Delphi was spun out of GM in 1999, GM has seen their Delphi related charges grow to $8.3 billion.
Visteon, formerly part of Ford, also saw a Q1 loss of $105 million on revenue of $2.86 billion, these figures were as a result of plant closures and lower production levels by North American based automakers. Visteon still generates a third of its sales from Ford but has made significant steps to expand into new markets such as China which has helped reduce their overall losses. Despite the market conditions Visteon expects to either make a loss of $25 million or a profit of $25 million in 2008.
American Axle, a key supplier to GM and following recent strike action managed to seriously affect production at a number of GM’s North American plants. American Axle is currently in an 8 week strike however they confidently told their own suppliers to be ready to begin production shortly. Now it is OK for American Axle to say that their suppliers should be prepared to start production, but how does a supplier fund such production if they are not sure when the parts will be shipped and hence payment received?, at the other end of the supply chain how much inventory should GM hold to avoid any potential out of stock situations and hence avoid production stoppages? Managing inventory in today’s economy is on a knife edge, get it wrong and it will have a serious financial impact on the customer, get it right and it will bring improved supply chain performance, reduced costs and hopefully increased sales. The strike at American Axle centres around different plants receiving different benefits packages, their workers want to see a single and consistent package applied across the whole business. American Axle have invested in new low cost, high quality manufacturing plants in China, India and Poland so hopefully, once the strike action is resolved, they will be able to continue along a path of continued growth.
Finally let’s take a look at a shining light in the automotive supplier community. Borg Warner saw their quarterly profit jump by 52%, again partly due to improved sales in Europe and Asia. Borg Warner are seeing an increased demand for their product technologies especially those which help improve fuel economy, lower emissions and provide better vehicle performance. Given the industry’s demand for better fuel economy and lower emissions, Borg Warner is in an excellent position to see significant growth in their business in the next few years. In fact any company producing fuel cells, batteries, electronic control systems and electric motors stands to benefit from these new market demands.
So, interesting times for many automotive companies, the general themes emerging from many of the first quarter company results is that of decreased sales in North America, increased sales in Europe, reducing costs by establishing new plants in low cost regions around the world and improving supply chain efficiencies. I will take a closer look at the performance of European and ASPAC based automotive companies in future blog posts.
Until then have a good weekend














